Posts in Global Outlook
European Industrial Outlook: A Two-Speed Recovery

Europe’s medium-term outlook calls for further strengthening in the pace of growth, absent a slump in confidence related to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. GDP jumped almost a full percentage point since our last report six months ago, though employment remains flat amid lackluster investment. Offsetting feeble capital formation has been a more accommodating fiscal stance by governments, which boosted public spending. The European Central Bank’s bond-buying program is instilling confidence that the deflationary tendencies of the previous year have been arrested. GDP is now slated to advance as much as 1.5% in 2015 and at a slightly faster pace the following year.

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Cuba's Moment

After more than half a century of failed economic policies and an embargo with the U.S., economic success will not come easily. Among the many obstacles to Cuba's economic strengthening are a rapidly aging population, which requires family planning and immigration programs, and weak investment, which calls for an effective banking system and capital market. As the largest island in the Caribbean (estimated population of 11.3 million) with proximity to the U.S., the country is well positioned for trade competitiveness if it leverages new relationships and develops a productive workforce

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