Today’s global uncertainties can quickly present head- or tail-winds to future U.S. growth. In addition to our quarterly scenario for U.S. manufacturing growth, the June 2017 report also explores the boundaries of plausible factory sector growth through 2020.
The upswing in the global economy that began in the winter of 2016 continues apace. All told, the MAPI Foundation’s forecast remains relatively unchanged from the February 2017 report.
Our current five-year forecast is one of persistently sluggish activity. We expect no more than 2% annual growth in U.S. GDP through and including 2020. We predict less than 1% annual growth in U.S. manufacturing output for 2016 and 2017 and then growth of 1% or a little more through and including 2020
Manufacturing industrial production was essentially unchanged in the first quarter of 2016 and then fell at a 1% annual rate in the second quarter. July production grew at a 6% annual rate, so the third quarter is off to a good start. The strong July begs the question of whether the month’s growth was a fluke.
This article considers the appropriate decision framework for corporate capital investment projects when the technologies are new to the company or new to the world. I use an overview of the known drivers of capital investment and an exploration of the significant differences in motivation and framework between ordinary capital investment and new technology investment to form a decision-making flow chart for both capital investment and new technology investment.
It has been seven years since the EU was hit with its version of the global financial crisis. Even though Europe’s economy is growing again after two recessions, the eurozone’s GDP volume has not fully recovered yet and many of the original crisis symptoms persist. While the UK referendum to leave the EU surprised many people, Britain’s economy has been performing better than many European countries. As the UK is not part of the currency union, it is stronger economically than many of its EU counterparts.