U.S. Industrial Outlook: Glimmers of Light

In recent months, there have been a number of welcome signs of stability in the global economic picture. A firming of price pressures and trade flows in key regions has eased fears of a lapse into growth-destroying deflation. This is a moderate improvement from our December 2016 forecast.

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Kristin Graybill
U.S. Industrial Outlook: December 2016

Our current five-year forecast is one of persistently sluggish activity. We expect no more than 2% annual growth in U.S. GDP through and including 2020. We predict less than 1% annual growth in U.S. manufacturing output for 2016 and 2017 and then growth of 1% or a little more through and including 2020

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Kristin Graybill
Report on U.S. Trade in Manufactures

The report provides a breakout of U.S. bilateral trade with China and Mexico, which has become a contentious electoral issue. As will be seen, the two bilateral deficits are critically different in terms of trade composition and policy relationships.

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Kristin Graybill
Productivity Dynamics: Decision Criteria for New Technology Investment

This article considers the appropriate decision framework for corporate capital investment projects when the technologies are new to the company or new to the world. I use an overview of the known drivers of capital investment and an exploration of the significant differences in motivation and framework between ordinary capital investment and new technology investment to form a decision-making flow chart for both capital investment and new technology investment.

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Kristin Graybill