MAPI FOUNDATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY

September 2017

The MAPI Foundation uses the IHS Global Insight model of the U.S. economy to develop quarterly economic and manufacturing forecasts. The Foundation develops unique assumptions on four model drivers that are critical for the short-term dynamic of U.S. factory sector growth. 

Global Growth Variables

  • Aggregate GDP growth of non-U.S. advanced economies
  • Aggregate GDP growth of 26 major developing economies

Currency Variables

  • U.S. dollar versus an average of advanced economy currencies
  • U.S. dollar versus a basket of developing economy currencies

2017-2020 Assumptions

The Foundation’s forecast assumes GDP growth that reflect the realities of a stabilizing and improving global economic picture that is nonetheless still burdened by historically subpar performance. In the context of normal currency volatility, we assume that global economic dynamics will continue to favor the dollar.

  • 1.7% non-U.S. advanced country GDP growth
  • 3.1% non-U.S. developing economy GDP growth
  • The U.S. dollar will appreciate by an average of 0% per year against advanced country currencies
  • The U.S. dollar will appreciate by an average of 0.7% per year against developing country currencies

The Foundation’s forecast incorporates the assumption of relatively low interest rates and the nonzero probability of a growth enhancing fiscal stimulus, which contributes to the low likelihood of a recession before the end of 2020.