FORECAST METHODOLOGY

March 2018

The MAPI Foundation uses the IHS Global Insight model of the U.S. economy to develop quarterly economic and manufacturing forecasts. The Foundation develops unique assumptions on four model drivers that are critical for the short-term dynamic of U.S. factory sector growth. 

Global Growth Variables

  • Aggregate GDP growth of non-U.S. advanced economies
  • Aggregate GDP growth of 26 major developing economies

Currency Variables

  • U.S. dollar versus an average of advanced economy currencies
  • U.S. dollar versus a basket of developing economy currencies

Input Assumptions of Average 2018-2021 Performance

The Foundation’s forecast reflects the realities of a stabilizing and improving global economic picture. 

  • 1.9% non-U.S. advanced economy GDP growth
  • 3.5% developing economy GDP growth
  • The U.S. dollar will appreciate by an average of 0.1% per year against advanced country currencies
  • The U.S. dollar will appreciate by an average of 0.2% per year against developing country currencies

The Foundation’s forecast assumes a minimal risk of recession through the end of 2021, supported by a broad improvement in global economic conditions and the stimulus from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.  We assume a modest tightening in financial conditions, mostly as a result of our assumption that the Federal Reserve will implement four 25 basis point hikes in the target for the federal funds rate during 2018.