Posts in Jobs
A Financial Wake-Up Call for Manufacturers

Recent turbulence in the stock market is a wake-up call to manufacturers, and to all businesses. The measurable rise in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, now at the highest level in four years, has arguably been the primary catalyst for the equity market rout. This rise spurred to some extent by credible hints that long-dormant inflation might be on the cusp of increasing, has been a signal that financial conditions will eventually, and perhaps quickly, tighten to more normal levels.

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The Slow March Forward

In spite of the tumult of a reawakening global economy whose U.S. benefits were constrained by escalating political uncertainty, two destructive hurricanes, and an alarming confrontation with North Korea, U.S. manufacturing managed a rather bland but steady growth performance during 2017. The Federal Reserve reported that after two difficult years of essentially zero output gains, growth in the factory sector logged 1.3% during 2017. 

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The Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the U.S. Manufacturing Outlook

By now, the staggering physical impact of Hurricane Harvey, with its overwhelming 52 inches of rain, is well known. There are 58 counties in Texas alone that have been declared disaster areas and are thus eligible for federal disaster assistance. Tragically, there are more than 60 deaths known thus far. Houston is the fourth most populated city in the U.S., so U.S. housing stock as a whole is significantly affected. While estimates vary, NPR quoted the White House on September 1 stating that 100,000 homes were impacted by the storm.

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ISM Report, JobsKristin Graybill
Troubling Signs Amidst Persistent Strength in Employment Numbers

Employment remains a star in an otherwise lackluster economic expansion. U.S. employer payrolls swelled by a strong 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate fell a tick to 4.3 percent, remaining at a 16-year low.  Even with the sluggish GDP growth of recent quarters, it is clear that the U.S. economy is growing above its long-term, non-inflationary potential, creating a strong demand for labor even after eight years of economic recovery and expansion.   

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JobsErin Graziani